The Base Rate Fallacy: When Ignoring the Big Picture Leads to Bad Decisions
How Focusing on Specifics Can Trick Even the Smartest Analysts
Imagine you meet a quiet, introverted man who loves reading and enjoys solitude. Someone asks you:
Is he more likely to be a librarian or a salesperson?
Most people instantly think: "Librarian, of course!" But mathematically, that’s probably wrong.
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