The Base Rate Fallacy: When Ignoring the Big Picture Leads to Bad Decisions

How Focusing on Specifics Can Trick Even the Smartest Analysts

Imagine you meet a quiet, introverted man who loves reading and enjoys solitude. Someone asks you:

Is he more likely to be a librarian or a salesperson?

Most people instantly think: "Librarian, of course!" But mathematically, that’s probably wrong.